On Polymarket, users have placed $257,000 in bets on Poilievre, giving him an 89% chance of winning the upcoming federal election expected this spring. The prediction market, which opened on December 30, 2024, has seen a total trading volume of $412,095 as of Monday. This marks a significant shift in public sentiment following Trudeau’s resignation announcement.

The market’s resolution is straightforward: it will close as “Yes” if Poilievre becomes Canada’s next prime minister and “No” otherwise.

Trudeau’s Departure Signals Political Change

Justin Trudeau’s decision to step down as both Liberal Party leader and prime minister follows declining approval ratings and political challenges. Trudeau, who has led the Liberal Party since 2013 and served as prime minister since 2015, announced his resignation on January 6. The announcement came as his party prepares to select a new leader.

The Polymarket prediction market for Trudeau’s resignation saw a dramatic shift in odds—from 19% to 82%—before resolving on Monday. That market alone amassed over $1 million in trading volume, reflecting the intense interest in Canada’s political shakeup.

Poilievre’s Pro-Crypto Stance Resonates

Pierre Poilievre’s popularity among Polymarket users may stem from his pro-crypto advocacy. A vocal supporter of financial freedom, Poilievre has emphasized the importance of individuals having the option to invest in bitcoin and other crypto assets. In 2022, he revealed personal holdings in the Purpose Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, further solidifying his image as a crypto-friendly politician.

This alignment with emerging financial technologies could resonate with Canada’s growing crypto community and younger voters interested in economic innovation.

The Road Ahead

The upcoming federal election is set to be a pivotal moment for Canada’s political and economic direction. Poilievre’s strong odds on Polymarket suggest a wave of support for his policies and leadership, particularly in contrast to the Liberal Party’s recent struggles.

For crypto enthusiasts, Poilievre’s potential election could signal a shift toward a more blockchain-friendly government. As the Conservative leader continues to campaign, all eyes will be on whether his pro-crypto stance and policy platform can translate into electoral success.