Is Biden Escalating the Ukraine War Before Trump Takes Office?

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to assume office, a new controversy has emerged over President Joe Biden’s recent decision to permit Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. The move has sparked widespread concern that it could complicate Trump’s plans to broker a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict and potentially escalate the war to a more dangerous level.

Biden’s Policy Shift and Its Strategic Implications

The Biden administration’s authorization to supply Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) allows Kyiv to target Russian military positions up to 190 miles inside Russia. Critics argue that this decision represents a significant shift in U.S. policy, raising the risk of a direct NATO-Russia confrontation. The U.S. military must support the missile launches, as the GPS targeting system for ATACMS relies on U.S. satellite guidance, effectively making American involvement unavoidable.

Russian officials have described the move as a “very big step towards the start of World War III.” Members of Russia’s State Duma and foreign affairs committees issued stern warnings, stating that deeper strikes into Russian territory will provoke severe escalation, potentially triggering a broader conflict.

This escalation comes as Britain and France have also provided Ukraine with long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles, further expanding Ukraine’s strike capabilities.

A Last-Minute Move Ahead of Trump’s Ceasefire Plan

Biden’s decision arrives just two months before President-elect Trump is set to take office, raising questions about the timing. Reports suggest Trump is preparing to name a peace envoy to facilitate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, aiming for a ceasefire. Some analysts believe Biden’s move is intended to create “facts on the ground” that would limit Trump’s ability to implement his peace agenda.

Donald Trump Jr. voiced his concerns, stating that the military-industrial complex “seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives.” Similarly, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized the decision on social media, accusing Biden of “trying to start WWIII” before Trump takes office.

Critics argue that the Biden administration is attempting to entrench its foreign policy objectives, making it more difficult for Trump to shift strategy once in office. David Sacks, a technology investor and political commentator, stated that Biden’s move will “hand Trump the worst situation possible.”

The Role of the Military-Industrial Complex

The notion that the military-industrial complex is driving the escalation has gained traction among Trump allies and conservative commentators. They argue that a protracted conflict in Ukraine serves the financial interests of defense contractors and entrenched Pentagon officials. Author Christopher Caldwell noted that U.S. involvement in such missile strikes would amount to “a deadly, unambiguously American authored act of war.”

Biden’s authorization of ATACMS for Ukraine appears to align with this narrative, as it directly contradicts the approach Trump is expected to pursue. Trump’s incoming administration has signaled its intention to prioritize diplomatic solutions over military escalation.

Historical Context and Long-Term Risks

The escalation is seen as a continuation of NATO’s post-Cold War expansion, which has long been a point of contention between Russia and Western powers. Jonathan Haslam, a professor at the Institute for Advanced Study, argues in his forthcoming book, Hubris: The American Origins of Russia’s War Against Ukraine, that NATO’s decisions since the 1990s laid the groundwork for the current crisis. Critics of NATO expansion maintain that ignoring Russia’s security concerns has contributed to the current impasse.

Biden’s decision could have far-reaching consequences. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously warned that deeper NATO involvement would be seen as direct participation in the war, a red line for Russia. The potential for escalation remains high, as U.S. and NATO officials continue to send advanced weaponry to Ukraine, risking further destabilization of the region.

Conclusion

Biden’s authorization for Ukraine to use long-range U.S. missiles raises serious concerns about the potential for a broader war with Russia. With President-elect Trump preparing to negotiate peace, Biden’s move could make diplomatic solutions more difficult. As tensions rise, the influence of the military-industrial complex is being scrutinized, with critics warning that U.S. policy may be prioritizing profits over peace. How Russia responds in the coming weeks will likely determine whether this conflict escalates into something far more dangerous.