As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to regain momentum after a rocky March, all eyes are on the March 28 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report—a critical U.S. economic indicator that could serve as a launchpad for Bitcoin’s historic April rally.
With global macro uncertainty, trade war anxieties, and fading inflation fears swirling, analysts are predicting that Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high of $110,000 in the coming weeks—provided the PCE data eases market concerns.
📉 Macro Pressures Have Held BTC Back
Since President Trump’s January 20 inauguration, BTC has dropped over 14%, falling from an all-time high of $108,500 to the current level of $88,098. The decline follows:
- U.S. tariffs on China and other trade partners, dampening investor sentiment.
- Bitcoin ETF outflows, especially from hedge funds unwinding trades amid macro volatility.
- Broader risk-off behavior across markets, including a shift back into gold.
Yet, despite these headwinds, Bitcoin’s seasonal trend and economic positioning suggest a breakout is on the table.
📅 Why Friday’s Inflation Report Matters
The PCE report, released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), measures the prices consumers pay for goods and services. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), it’s the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, making it pivotal for monetary policy decisions.
If Friday’s print shows a further cooling in inflation, analysts say it could:
- Soothe market jitters caused by trade tensions.
- Strengthen the case for rate cuts, improving liquidity.
- Revive investor appetite for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
“The PCE inflation print could become the next key catalyst,” said QCP Group, a Singapore-based digital asset firm.
“With top-heavy BTC options exposure already priced in above $100K, macro data will determine April’s momentum.”
📈 April: Historically One of Bitcoin’s Best Months
According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has historically posted an average 12.9% return in April, ranking it among its top four performing months. A positive PCE reading could reinforce this seasonal strength.
🗣 Analyst Targets: $110,000 Incoming?
Multiple high-profile analysts are calling for a breakout:
- Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, says a rally to $110K is plausible before a retracement to $76.5K.
- Juan Pellicer, senior analyst at IntoTheBlock, told Cointelegraph: “BTC is showing signs of recovery, driven by institutional interest and inflows. The Fed’s recent shift away from monetary tightening could boost liquidity—fueling the next leg up.”
BTC is currently sitting just under $88K, with multiple resistance levels clustered near $92K and $96K. A strong PCE report could be the trigger to break above $100K—where open interest for options is already stacking up.
🧭 But Tariffs Still Loom: April 2 Key Deadline
Despite this bullish backdrop, some analysts remain cautious.
- Nicolai Sondergaard, Nansen Research Analyst, says: “Even with crypto-specific tailwinds, global tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on markets.”
“We’ll know more after April 2, once trade partners respond to U.S. tariff plans.”
This makes the next two weeks critical. If inflation eases and tariffs are rolled back or softened, it could create a perfect storm for Bitcoin’s biggest rally yet.
Hidden Insight
While most eyes are on BTC’s technical levels, the real wildcard is inflation-linked monetary policy. If Friday’s PCE data shows cooling inflation, it could open the door to Federal Reserve rate cuts, unleashing a liquidity wave that propels Bitcoin to its next parabolic phase.