As economic recession fears mount, many analysts believe that Bitcoin (BTC) could be poised for its next major bull run. Despite BTC’s recent price decline—down 24% from its January 20 peak of $108,500—leading institutional voices like BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick are framing the downturn as a buying opportunity, particularly if recession-induced liquidity surges hit the U.S. economy.

The Economic Picture: Weak Growth, Rising Unemployment

• The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projects a 2.8% GDP contraction in Q1 2025—the worst quarterly performance since Q2 2022.
• U.S. unemployment rose to 4.1% in February, the highest since late 2023, with 200,000 jobs lost over the past six months.
• Recession probability for mid-2025 now stands at 36%, up from 23% in late 2024.

Bitcoin’s Price Action and ETF Pressure

• BTC is currently trading around $84,136, according to CoinMarketCap.
• Bitcoin ETFs have experienced major outflows, largely attributed to hedge fund deleveraging, following Trump’s renewed tariff policy.
• Despite this, core long-term holders remain committed, according to Mitchnick.

BlackRock’s Mitchnick: “Bitcoin is Long Liquidity”

• In a March 19 interview with Yahoo Finance, Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s Global Head of Digital Assets, stated: “Bitcoin thrives when governments and central banks flood the system with cash.”
• Mitchnick pointed to Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation during economic downturns.
• He believes that in a recession, stimulus spending and rate cuts will drive demand for Bitcoin, just as they have in past liquidity cycles.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Diverging Paths, Similar Goals

• Gold is currently outperforming Bitcoin as the go-to hedge amid market stress.
• Mitchnick admits BTC’s short-term correlation with equities has masked its deeper store-of-value potential.
• But BTC’s scarcity and decentralization position it as a modern alternative to gold in a liquidity-driven environment.

Bitcoin’s Political Tailwind: Trump’s Strategic Reserve

• In January 2025, the Trump administration launched a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
• Details remain unclear, but the move signals official recognition of Bitcoin’s financial utility.
• Mitchnick says the announcement represents “a strong signal of support” that could boost investor confidence in BTC.

Will Recession Trigger the Next BTC Bull Run?

• If the U.S. enters a recession and the government responds with stimulus and rate cuts, Bitcoin’s non-inflationary nature could drive renewed demand.
• BTC’s next rally may not come from hype—but from its role as a liquidity hedge and monetary alternative.
• Institutional players are watching macro indicators closely, and if liquidity returns to markets, Bitcoin may be the first to benefit.

Hidden Insight

If Bitcoin rallies during a recession, it could finally prove itself as a non-correlated hedge against fiat and equities. This shift could reposition BTC as a global macro asset, attracting sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and nation-states looking to de-risk from fiat inflation and debt.